The tropics are heating up!  One area of continued interest is south of Cuba and east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 70% chance this system could become a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.  An Air Force Recon flight is scheduled to investigate this area later today.  The system doesn’t look too impressive on satellite; there is abundant convection but no clear organization or circulation.  Low shear and warm water temperatures will keep the environment conducive for development.

As for strength and track, the models are in complete disagreement once and IF the system enters the Gulf.  A handful of models take the system northwest towards the Texas coast, while others swing it north to northeast posing a threat to the northern Gulf coast.  What is certain for the bay area will be an influx of tropical moisture.  Rain chances will steadily increase through the weekend and rain may be quite heavy as we head into next week.

Another area of interest is to the east of the northern Leeward Islands.  According to the National Hurricane Center there is a 10% chance or less of this system becoming a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

The first name on the list for the 2010 season is Alex.

Thanks to the 2nd grade class at Lee Elementary and Ms. Barone for inviting me to their school today!  We discussed the steps we need to take to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season and the items we should include in disaster-ready kits for our homes.  The students are preparing disaster-ready kits for the less fortunate.  What a great group of students and an amazing service they are providing to the community!  I know a lot of folks will appreciate those kits!

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Don’t put away the ponchos just yet.  The same front that soaked Gasparilla will move back north as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday.  Scattered showers will spread from south to north Monday with the heaviest activity forecast to arrive late in the day.

Showers will linger through the first part of Tuesday before another cold front sweeps through.  We keep a good deal of cloud cover around for much of the week thanks to the active southern branch of the jetstream.  The jetstream, a band of fast moving wind, is planted right over the Sunshine state and will lay “tracks” for several disturbances to travel along later this week.  The next round of wet weather looks to be shaping up by the end of the work week.

Another round of severe weather plagued parts of the deep south today.  Tornado Watches were issued late this morning for parts of Alabama and Georgia.  The watch boxes were extended to include parts of the Nature Coast earlier this evening.  The culprit: another cold front.  The front will move into the bay area overnight and may bring the threat for strong storms to the area.  Citrus and Hernando Counties could see the activity move in shortly after midnight.  The front quickly moves south, dragging the heavy rainfall and gusty wind with it.  Prepare for delays and slow travel times for your morning commute.  The rain could limit visibility at times and cause ponding on area roadways.  Gusty wind will make driving high profile vehicles a bit difficult especially on area bridges.

High pressure will quickly sweep in pulling in a much cooler and drier air mass late Monday.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s inland and low 50s along the coast Tuesday morning.  No Freeze Watches or Warnings are expected to be issued at this time
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